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Understanding monsoon variability and change: problems in nonlinear dynamics and statistics

Prof. Ashwin K. Seshadri CAOS, IISc
Speaker
Prof. Ashwin K. Seshadri CAOS, IISc
When Apr 16, 2019
from 04:00 PM to 05:00 PM
Where LH 006
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Abstract:  The talk will be in two parts. The first part will discuss nonlinear dynamics of monsoons. There has been some previous work by others suggesting that monsoons could be sensitive to small change in forcing because of the presence of a bifurcation (or “tipping point”). We will describe an idealized model examining this prior work and whether such a bifurcation can occur in such models, and consider some of the open questions that must be resolved in order to understand this behavior.

The second part will consider a problem in spatial statistics, that of characterizing uncertainty in estimates of spatial averages (e.g. temperature or rainfall) made using point measurements. This is not straightforward, we may not know what weights to use, and there could be missing observations. Missing observations introduce new features: the statistics of the spatial average do not have closed form expression, which must instead be estimated by truncating an infinite series.  We will discuss some recent work in this area, and some ongoing applications.

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